Analytics expert Matt Bailey likes to stress the power of the craft in his seminars by working through one of Star Trek’s biggest statistics: Red Shirt deaths.
It is a cliché among Trek fans that on the original show, wearing a red shirt meant death. In more episodes than not, it seems, crewmembers wearing red would not come back alive from whatever mission Captain Kirk was leading.
But is this true? Do the numbers support the cliché? Bailey decided to employ analytics to put it to the test.
In the original five-year mission of the Enterprise, he learned, 59 crewmembers were killed – that's 13.7% of the ship’s crew of 430. That’s Analytics Step #1: establish the conversion rate.
Step #2 is segmentation of the data. That gives us:
Red Shirt deaths: 43 (73%)
Blue Shirt deaths: 5 (8%)
Gold Shirt deaths: 6 (10%)
Other: 4 (6%)
Step #3 is analysis, defining the data more granularly. For instance, where did the Red Shirt deaths occur?
Aboard the Enterprise (42.5%)
Planet-side (57.5%)
Step #3b, more analysis: what were the causes of the Red Shirt deaths? Many were security officers, so we can ask how often fighting was to blame...
There were 130 fights altogether in the original five-year mission;
One or more fatalities occurred in 18 of these fights;
In 13 of the 18 fights with fatalities, a Red Shirt died.
Now comes Step #4: establishing the fatality rate:
In 8 of the Red Shirt fatality confrontations, multiple Red Shirts died (totaling 34);
In 9 of the Red Shirt fatality confrontations, only one Red Shirt died.
More Red Shirts died in groups, then, than died alone. Further inquiry reveals that slightly less than 50% were vaporized.
Step #5 is the identification of other factors; for instance, what increases/decreases the likelihood of Red Shirt death? We can safely say that not getting into fights improves a Red Shirt’s survival odds, but what else is at work here?
Kirk getting laid. When the Captain is in mojo mode, as occurs 24 times in the original mission, the survival rate of Red Shirts increases by 84%; in only three of Kirk’s missions of sexual conquest do any Red Shirts get vaporized;
When Kirk meets a local woman and then starts a fight, Red Shirts are again at much greater risk
Bailey’s breakdown:
Red Shirt Death episodes = 18
Episodes with fights = 55
Probability of a fight breaking out = 70%
Kirk sex episodes = 24
Kirk sex + fights = 16
Kirk sex + Red Shirt casualty= 4
Red Shirt death + fight + Kirk sex = 3
Now comes Step #6 - the identification of trends (per Bailey):
Probability of a Red Shirt casualty: 53%
Fights ending in a fatality: 14%
Probability that the fatality was wearing red: 72%
Probability of a Red Shirt death when Kirk is getting it on: 12%
We can now come to some conclusions. Bailey’s are as follows:
The Red Shirt survival rate is higher when Kirk is horny than it is when fights break out (Kirk got horny on 30% of the missions);
The Red Shirt death rate when fighting breaks out and Kirk is not pursuing a female than the Red Shirt death rate when Kirk is pursuing a female and a fight breaks out;
Conclusion: Kirk’s libido has a significant impact on the well-being of his crew.
Kirk’s best move, where crew survival is concerned, is to 1) not start fights, and 2) only visit planets populated by beautiful women...
Isn’t analytics fun?
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